MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
HAWKSUMES
9-23 | Road
71
MORGAN STATE
BEARSMORG
14-16 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
40%
BEARS
60%
HAWKS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Maryland Eastern Shore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UMES -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMES)
UMES By 1-7 points
4.8%
UMES By 8-14 points
13.7%
MORG By 1-7 points
0.8%
MORG By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland Eastern Shore
90
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Morgan State
67
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
Maryland Eastern Shore
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Morgan State
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.0
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
UMES @ MORG
71 - 79
Jan 3, 2026
MORG @ UMES
49 - 66
Mar 1, 2025
MORG @ UMES
75 - 72
Feb 1, 2025
UMES @ MORG
63 - 76
Feb 17, 2024
UMES @ MORG
65 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+22.7% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 17.4
vs
Morgan State: 13.4
Blocks (L5)
+519.0% more
Morgan State: 6.1
vs
Maryland Eastern Shore: 0.9
Rebounding (L5)
+32.4% more
Morgan State: 38.1
vs
Maryland Eastern Shore: 28.8
Steals (L5)
+25.8% more
Morgan State: 6.6
vs
Maryland Eastern Shore: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMES Score
90.0
71
MORG Score
67.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 33.0
29.0 / 18.0
Assists
14.2 / 11.6
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
6.1 / 0.9
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 45.2
46.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 73.3
80.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 28.8
35.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.6 / 5.3
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 17.4
6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMES
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -6.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
MORG
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMES
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -6.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
MORG
Advantage
14-12-1
(53.8%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +0.5
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
UMES
MORG
UMES
ML
50%
14-14
66%
21-11
58%
14-10
81%
21-5
ATS
50%
14-14
69%
22-10
58%
14-10
81%
21-5
TTL
50%
14-14
66%
21-11
100%
24-0
100%
26-0
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