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UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

29-7  |  Road

86
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 6:15 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

26-11  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
45%
📊
LOBOS
55%
AGGIES --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (New Mexico)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

2.9%

Lobos Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

USU By 1-7 points

2.2%

USU By 8-14 points

0.4%

UNM By 1-7 points

9.3%

UNM By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
66
UTAH STATE
85
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
UTAH STATE
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lobos Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lobos (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UNM @ USU 90 - 94
Feb 4, 2026 USU @ UNM 86 - 66
Feb 16, 2025 USU @ UNM 79 - 82
Feb 1, 2025 UNM @ USU 82 - 63
Mar 9, 2024 UNM @ USU 85 - 87
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.2%
New Mexico: 42.6% vs Utah State: 29.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +9.8%
New Mexico: 76.7% vs Utah State: 66.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
New Mexico: 48.7% vs Utah State: 47.1%
Blocks (L5) +28.4% more
Utah State: 3.5 vs New Mexico: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 66.0 86
UNM Score 85.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.6 / 29.4 23.0 / 35.0
Assists 16.9 / 17.9 7.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.5 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 47.1 41.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 66.9 70.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 37.1 28.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.3 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 11.2 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
UNM
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
USU
UNM
USU
ML
57% 21-16
49% 17-18
74% 25-9
66% 21-11
ATS
57% 21-16
74% 26-9
74% 25-9
67% 22-11
TTL
41% 15-22
51% 18-17
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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