Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bisons @ Governors LIP @ APSU

LIPSCOMB

BISONSLIP

19-13  |  Road

76
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 3:20 PM ET
F&M Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

22-9  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
BISONS
75%
📊
GOVERNORS
25%
BISONS --
GOVERNORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
LIPSCOMB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Lipscomb)
BisonsLIP (-3.5) 0 GovernorsAPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bisons Cover

94.5%

Governors Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIP -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIP)

LIP By 1-7 points

13.7%

LIP By 8-14 points

24.3%

APSU By 1-7 points

4.0%

APSU By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
95
LIPSCOMB
79
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
LIPSCOMB
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bisons Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bisons (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Win
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 LIP @ APSU 76 - 87
Jan 17, 2026 APSU @ LIP 78 - 82
Feb 24, 2025 LIP @ APSU 95 - 78
Jan 18, 2025 APSU @ LIP 60 - 88
Feb 24, 2024 LIP @ APSU 90 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.3% more
Lipscomb: 18.1 vs Austin Peay: 14.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Lipscomb: 38.9% vs Austin Peay: 32.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Lipscomb: 51.1% vs Austin Peay: 45.6%
Turnovers (L5) +40.4% more
Austin Peay: 11.7 vs Lipscomb: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIP Score 95.0 76
APSU Score 79.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 38.9 60.0 / 29.0
Assists 14.6 / 18.1 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.2 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 51.1 60.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 80.8 / 78.1 67.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 30.5 27.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.0 / 6.4 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 8.4 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIP
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
APSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LIP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.9
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
LIP
APSU
LIP
ML
53% 16-14
71% 22-9
59% 16-11
66% 19-10
ATS
57% 17-13
71% 22-9
59% 16-11
66% 19-10
TTL
57% 17-13
58% 18-13
100% 27-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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