Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Braves SOU @ ALCN

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

17-17  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 11:55 AM ET
Davey L. Whitney Complex
View Odds Details →

ALCORN STATE

BRAVESALCN

9-23  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
55%
📊
BRAVES
45%
JAGUARS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ALCORN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Alcorn State)
JaguarsSOU (-3.5) 0 BravesALCN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

38.2%

Braves Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALCN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALCN)

SOU By 1-7 points

21.6%

SOU By 8-14 points

10.7%

ALCN By 1-7 points

27.2%

ALCN By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
65
SOUTHERN
68
ALCORN STATE
Simulated Score
SOUTHERN
ALCORN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 SOU @ ALCN 73 - 78
Feb 1, 2025 ALCN @ SOU 69 - 74
Feb 3, 2024 SOU @ ALCN 71 - 70
Jan 28, 2023 ALCN @ SOU 68 - 80
Jan 29, 2022 SOU @ ALCN 64 - 68
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Alcorn State: 29.6% vs Southern: 24.8%
Blocks (L5) +64.5% more
Southern: 5.4 vs Alcorn State: 1.9
Steals (L5) +26.8% more
Southern: 10.5 vs Alcorn State: 7.7
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Southern: 44.7% vs Alcorn State: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 65.0 73
ALCN Score 68.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 24.8 43.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.0 / 13.4 18.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.9 / 5.4 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 44.7 57.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 74.5 75.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 35.5 29.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.7 / 10.5 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 12.3 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
ALCN
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
ALCN Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALCN
SOU
ALCN
SOU
ML
66% 21-11
67% 22-11
75% 18-6
70% 21-9
ATS
68% 21-10-1
64% 21-12
75% 18-6
70% 21-9
TTL
47% 15-17
42% 14-19
100% 24-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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