Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Golden Eagles LR @ TNTC

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

12-20  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 11:20 AM ET
Hooper Eblen Center
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE TECH

GOLDEN EAGLESTNTC

13-18  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
35%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
65%
TROJANS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Little Rock)
TrojansLR (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesTNTC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

95.5%

Golden Eagles Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LR -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)

LR By 1-7 points

12.2%

LR By 8-14 points

23.0%

TNTC By 1-7 points

3.3%

TNTC By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
94
LITTLE ROCK
77
TENNESSEE TECH
Simulated Score
LITTLE ROCK
TENNESSEE TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 LR @ TNTC 77 - 87
Jan 1, 2026 TNTC @ LR 58 - 77
Feb 13, 2025 TNTC @ LR 75 - 79
Jan 18, 2025 LR @ TNTC 77 - 71
Mar 2, 2024 TNTC @ LR 43 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +43.8% more
Little Rock: 13.9 vs Tennessee Tech: 7.8
Steals (L5) +31.9% more
Little Rock: 8.3 vs Tennessee Tech: 5.6
Blocks (L5) +31.7% more
Little Rock: 4.5 vs Tennessee Tech: 3.1
Free Throw % (L5) +12.3%
Little Rock: 82.8% vs Tennessee Tech: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LR Score 94.0 77
TNTC Score 77.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.4 / 35.3 46.0 / 36.0
Assists 7.8 / 13.9 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.1 / 4.5 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 38.9 / 41.2 52.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 82.8 86.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 34.6 38.0 / 18.0
Steals 5.6 / 8.3 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 10.7 21.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
TNTC Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
TNTC Advantage
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
TNTC
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNTC
LR
TNTC
LR
ML
50% 15-15
52% 16-15
65% 15-8
68% 17-8
ATS
50% 15-15
45% 14-17
65% 15-8
68% 17-8
TTL
57% 17-13
58% 18-13
100% 23-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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