KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
22-14 | Road
85
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
28-9 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
50%
RAZORBACKS
50%
WILDCATS
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-48.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +48.0 points (Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UK -48.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)
UK By 1-7 points
0.0%
UK By 8-14 points
0.0%
ARK By 1-7 points
0.0%
ARK By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Kentucky
105
KENTUCKY
Arkansas
57
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Kentucky
KENTUCKY
Arkansas
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -48.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o161.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
UK @ ARK
85 - 77
Feb 1, 2025
ARK @ UK
89 - 79
Mar 2, 2024
ARK @ UK
102 - 111
Jan 27, 2024
UK @ ARK
63 - 57
Mar 4, 2023
UK @ ARK
88 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.8% more
Kentucky: 6.6
vs
Arkansas: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+29.4% more
Kentucky: 11.8
vs
Arkansas: 8.3
Steals (L5)
+10.9% more
Kentucky: 7.3
vs
Arkansas: 6.5
Rebounding (L5)
+9.8% more
Kentucky: 37.0
vs
Arkansas: 33.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UK Score
105.0
85
ARK Score
57.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.3 / 31.3
21.0 / 46.0
Assists
18.3 / 11.7
10.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.1 / 6.6
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
54.0 / 39.1
49.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
72.3 / 68.3
62.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
33.4 / 37.0
26.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.5 / 7.3
2.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
8.3 / 11.8
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
UK
ARK
UK
ML
68%
25-12
71%
25-10
81%
25-6
72%
23-9
ATS
70%
26-11
83%
29-6
81%
25-6
72%
23-9
TTL
57%
21-16
63%
22-13
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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