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SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

27-6  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 5:40 PM ET
McCarthey Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

31-4  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
40%
📊
BULLDOGS
60%
GAELS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Saint Mary's)
GaelsSMC (-3.5) 0 BulldogsGONZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gaels Cover

99.2%

Bulldogs Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SMC -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)

SMC By 1-7 points

4.0%

SMC By 8-14 points

12.2%

GONZ By 1-7 points

0.6%

GONZ By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
78
SAINT MARY'S
54
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
SAINT MARY'S
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Gaels Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Gaels (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 GONZ @ SMC 59 - 70
Jan 31, 2026 SMC @ GONZ 65 - 73
Mar 11, 2025 GONZ @ SMC 58 - 51
Feb 22, 2025 SMC @ GONZ 74 - 67
Feb 1, 2025 GONZ @ SMC 58 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +26.1% more
Saint Mary's: 16.8 vs Gonzaga: 12.4
Free Throw % (L5) +19.6%
Saint Mary's: 81.8% vs Gonzaga: 62.2%
Blocks (L5) +16.8% more
Saint Mary's: 3.0 vs Gonzaga: 2.5
Turnovers (L5) +14.5% more
Saint Mary's: 10.7 vs Gonzaga: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMC Score 78.0 65
GONZ Score 54.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.0 / 38.5 35.0 / 29.0
Assists 12.4 / 16.8 18.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.0 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 44.8 47.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 62.2 / 81.8 62.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 40.4 / 39.2 39.0 / 34.0
Steals 10.8 / 4.5 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 10.7 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
GONZ
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
SMC
GONZ
SMC
ML
71% 25-10
56% 18-14
69% 20-9
82% 23-5
ATS
69% 24-11
62% 20-12
69% 20-9
83% 24-5
TTL
57% 20-15
53% 17-15
100% 29-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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