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GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

20-12  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Jan 24 • 2:50 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

13-19  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
LOPES
70%
📊
BULLDOGS
30%
LOPES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
188.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Grand Canyon)
LopesGCU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lopes Cover

99.2%

Bulldogs Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GCU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)

GCU By 1-7 points

4.0%

GCU By 8-14 points

12.2%

FRES By 1-7 points

0.6%

FRES By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
106
GRAND CANYON
82
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
GRAND CANYON
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lopes Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lopes (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 188.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 FRES @ GCU 60 - 85
Jan 24, 2026 GCU @ FRES 68 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +37.8% more
Grand Canyon: 5.2 vs Fresno State: 3.2
Steals (L5) +19.5% more
Grand Canyon: 7.2 vs Fresno State: 5.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Grand Canyon: 36.8% vs Fresno State: 30.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Grand Canyon: 42.8% vs Fresno State: 40.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GCU Score 106.0 68
FRES Score 82.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 36.8 22.0 / 19.0
Assists 12.5 / 11.8 8.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.2 / 5.2 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 42.8 30.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 82.5 / 77.5 77.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 35.0 33.0 / 47.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.2 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 13.2 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GCU Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GCU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
GCU
FRES
GCU
ML
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
74% 23-8
68% 21-10
ATS
75% 24-8
72% 23-9
74% 23-8
68% 21-10
TTL
56% 18-14
44% 14-18
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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