Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Rams USU @ CSU

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

29-7  |  Road

65
FINAL
Fri, Jan 23 • 5:15 PM ET
Moby Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

21-13  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
63%
📊
RAMS
38%
AGGIES --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Colorado State)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 RamsCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

0.3%

Rams Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

USU By 1-7 points

0.3%

USU By 8-14 points

0.0%

CSU By 1-7 points

2.2%

CSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
54
UTAH STATE
81
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
UTAH STATE
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rams Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rams (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 USU @ CSU 65 - 61
Dec 20, 2025 CSU @ USU 58 - 100
Mar 14, 2025 USU @ CSU 72 - 83
Mar 1, 2025 USU @ CSU 66 - 93
Feb 11, 2025 CSU @ USU 85 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.6% more
Colorado State: 10.9 vs Utah State: 8.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.8%
Colorado State: 41.2% vs Utah State: 32.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +6.6%
Colorado State: 75.2% vs Utah State: 68.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Colorado State: 48.3% vs Utah State: 46.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 54.0 65
CSU Score 81.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.2 / 32.5 48.0 / 25.0
Assists 14.0 / 15.0 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.7 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 46.4 51.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 68.5 70.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 35.4 30.0 / 22.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.8 5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 8.7 21.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
CSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
CSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
USU
CSU
USU
ML
56% 19-15
49% 17-18
65% 20-11
66% 21-11
ATS
62% 21-13
74% 26-9
65% 20-11
67% 22-11
TTL
56% 19-15
51% 18-17
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 13 hours, 24 minutes ago
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 13 hours ago
LSU vs. McNeese: The Deep In-State Ties Behind Saturday's Rare S…
lsureveille 1 week ago
Big Ten Road Warriors: Historic Saturday Shakes Up Conference Po…
headtopics 1 week, 4 days ago
Texas A&M's Blowout Loss to LSU: Five Critical Takeaways
headtopics 1 week, 4 days ago