VANDERBILT
COMMODORESVAN
27-9 | Road
68
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
28-9 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
65%
RAZORBACKS
35%
COMMODORES
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
202.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
25%
Under 0
75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Vanderbilt)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VAN -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)
VAN By 1-7 points
1.1%
VAN By 8-14 points
4.8%
ARK By 1-7 points
0.1%
ARK By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Vanderbilt
116
VANDERBILT
Arkansas
86
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Vanderbilt
VANDERBILT
Arkansas
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Commodores
Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Commodores (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o173.5
Loss
Proj Total: 202.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
VAN @ ARK
75 - 86
Jan 20, 2026
VAN @ ARK
68 - 93
Mar 4, 2025
ARK @ VAN
90 - 77
Mar 13, 2024
VAN @ ARK
85 - 90
Feb 27, 2024
VAN @ ARK
85 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
Vanderbilt: 81.5%
vs
Arkansas: 77.7%
Turnovers (L5)
+59.1% more
Arkansas: 11.7
vs
Vanderbilt: 7.4
Steals (L5)
+45.4% more
Arkansas: 9.5
vs
Vanderbilt: 6.6
Blocks (L5)
+25.4% more
Arkansas: 6.4
vs
Vanderbilt: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VAN Score
116.0
68
ARK Score
86.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 34.9
41.0 / 32.0
Assists
16.6 / 14.1
25.0 / 13.0
Blocks
6.4 / 5.1
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 46.3
58.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 81.5
83.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 30.6
39.0 / 27.0
Steals
9.5 / 6.6
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 7.4
7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
27-9-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
VAN
ARK
VAN
ML
68%
25-12
69%
25-11
81%
25-6
56%
18-14
ATS
70%
26-11
78%
28-8
81%
25-6
56%
18-14
TTL
57%
21-16
58%
21-15
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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