COLORADO STATE
RAMSCSU
21-13 | Road
73
BOISE STATE
BRONCOSBOIS
20-12 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
55%
BRONCOS
45%
RAMS
--
BRONCOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
108.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Colorado State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)
CSU By 1-7 points
10.7%
CSU By 8-14 points
21.6%
BOIS By 1-7 points
2.7%
BOIS By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado State
63
COLORADO STATE
Boise State
45
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
Colorado State
COLORADO STATE
Boise State
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rams
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rams (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 108.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
BOIS @ CSU
78 - 67
Jan 16, 2026
CSU @ BOIS
73 - 79
Mar 15, 2025
BOIS @ CSU
56 - 69
Mar 7, 2025
CSU @ BOIS
83 - 73
Jan 22, 2025
BOIS @ CSU
72 - 75
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.9%
Colorado State: 33.3%
vs
Boise State: 25.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Colorado State: 45.1%
vs
Boise State: 42.3%
Blocks (L5)
+29.0% more
Boise State: 2.9
vs
Colorado State: 2.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.9%
Boise State: 76.8%
vs
Colorado State: 73.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSU Score
63.0
73
BOIS Score
45.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.4 / 33.3
40.0 / 56.0
Assists
12.4 / 12.2
12.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.2
2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 45.1
47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
76.8 / 73.9
78.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
34.3 / 32.4
28.0 / 26.0
Steals
6.1 / 5.9
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 12.6
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
BOIS
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
BOIS
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.7
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
CSU
BOIS
CSU
ML
50%
16-16
56%
19-15
61%
19-12
65%
20-11
ATS
50%
16-16
62%
21-13
61%
19-12
65%
20-11
TTL
56%
18-14
56%
19-15
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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