EASTERN ILLINOIS
PANTHERSEIU
13-20 | Road
63
LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
12-20 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
50%
TROJANS
50%
PANTHERS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LR +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)
EIU By 1-7 points
27.2%
EIU By 8-14 points
20.1%
LR By 1-7 points
21.6%
LR By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Eastern Illinois
74
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Little Rock
71
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
Eastern Illinois
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Little Rock
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trojans (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o133.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
LR @ EIU
72 - 78
Jan 15, 2026
EIU @ LR
63 - 74
Feb 27, 2025
LR @ EIU
60 - 71
Jan 27, 2025
EIU @ LR
56 - 54
Feb 3, 2024
LR @ EIU
71 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.7% more
Eastern Illinois: 5.0
vs
Little Rock: 3.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.7%
Eastern Illinois: 76.0%
vs
Little Rock: 73.3%
Steals (L5)
+13.6% more
Little Rock: 9.9
vs
Eastern Illinois: 8.8
Assists (L5)
+12.5% more
Little Rock: 15.8
vs
Eastern Illinois: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EIU Score
74.0
63
LR Score
71.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 28.1
40.0 / 37.0
Assists
15.8 / 14.1
17.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.4 / 5.0
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 41.2
45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 76.0
82.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 35.5
36.0 / 28.0
Steals
9.9 / 8.8
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 11.5
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EIU
Advantage
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
LR
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EIU
Advantage
15-13-2
(53.6%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
LR
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
EIU
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -1.7
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
EIU
LR
EIU
ML
52%
16-15
56%
18-14
68%
17-8
74%
23-8
ATS
45%
14-17
50%
16-16
68%
17-8
74%
23-8
TTL
58%
18-13
69%
22-10
100%
25-0
100%
31-0
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