SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
BULLDOGSSCST
10-22 | Road
67
MORGAN STATE
BEARSMORG
14-16 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
50%
BEARS
50%
BULLDOGS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (South Carolina State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SCST -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SCST)
SCST By 1-7 points
24.3%
SCST By 8-14 points
26.8%
MORG By 1-7 points
12.2%
MORG By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
South Carolina State
63
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Morgan State
54
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
South Carolina State
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Morgan State
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 117.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
MORG @ SCST
90 - 83
Jan 10, 2026
SCST @ MORG
67 - 72
Feb 15, 2025
MORG @ SCST
62 - 90
Jan 4, 2025
SCST @ MORG
86 - 72
Mar 2, 2024
SCST @ MORG
72 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+18.2% more
South Carolina State: 5.7
vs
Morgan State: 4.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
South Carolina State: 35.4%
vs
Morgan State: 31.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
South Carolina State: 41.3%
vs
Morgan State: 39.5%
Blocks (L5)
+34.1% more
Morgan State: 3.1
vs
South Carolina State: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SCST Score
63.0
67
MORG Score
54.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.9 / 35.4
25.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.5 / 11.7
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.3
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
39.5 / 41.3
45.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
69.7 / 61.7
61.0 / 47.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 27.0
31.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.6 / 5.7
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 14.8
8.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -11.7
ATS +/-: -0.9
MORG
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCST
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -11.7
ATS +/-: -0.9
MORG
Advantage
14-12-1
(53.8%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SCST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +0.6
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
SCST
MORG
SCST
ML
50%
14-14
61%
19-12
58%
14-10
74%
20-7
ATS
50%
14-14
68%
21-10
58%
14-10
74%
20-7
TTL
50%
14-14
52%
16-15
100%
24-0
100%
27-0
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