Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Delta Devils ALST @ MVSU

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

10-22  |  Road

89
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 1:30 PM ET
R.W. Harrison HPER Complex
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE

DELTA DEVILSMVSU

3-30  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
50%
📊
DELTA DEVILS
50%
HORNETS --
DELTA DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
ALABAMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Alabama State)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 Delta DevilsMVSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

100.0%

Delta Devils Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALST -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALST)

ALST By 1-7 points

0.1%

ALST By 8-14 points

0.5%

MVSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

MVSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
79
ALABAMA STATE
39
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Simulated Score
ALABAMA STATE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hornets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hornets (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 16, 2026 MVSU @ ALST 55 - 92
Jan 3, 2026 ALST @ MVSU 89 - 69
Feb 17, 2025 ALST @ MVSU 79 - 56
Jan 4, 2025 MVSU @ ALST 55 - 84
Feb 19, 2024 MVSU @ ALST 46 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +18.4% more
Alabama State: 32.2 vs Mississippi Valley State: 26.3
Assists (L5) +29.0% more
Mississippi Valley State: 11.2 vs Alabama State: 8.7
Turnovers (L5) +20.0% more
Mississippi Valley State: 15.0 vs Alabama State: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5) +14.3%
Mississippi Valley State: 79.1% vs Alabama State: 64.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 79.0 89
MVSU Score 39.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 30.3 33.0 / 39.0
Assists 11.2 / 8.7 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.5 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 35.2 44.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 79.1 / 64.8 80.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 26.3 / 32.2 20.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.7 / 6.8 9.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 12.5 18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST Advantage
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
MVSU
3-30-0 (9.1%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
MVSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MVSU
ALST
MVSU
ALST
ML
91% 30-3
65% 20-11
75% 18-6
76% 19-6
ATS
82% 27-6
65% 20-11
75% 18-6
76% 19-6
TTL
58% 19-14
52% 16-15
100% 24-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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