Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dolphins @ Governors JAX @ APSU

JACKSONVILLE

DOLPHINSJAX

12-20  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 12:00 PM ET
F&M Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

22-9  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
45%
📊
GOVERNORS
55%
DOLPHINS --
GOVERNORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Austin Peay)
DolphinsJAX (-3.5) 0 GovernorsAPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

0.2%

Governors Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APSU -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)

JAX By 1-7 points

0.1%

JAX By 8-14 points

0.0%

APSU By 1-7 points

1.4%

APSU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
58
JACKSONVILLE
87
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
JACKSONVILLE
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Governors Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Governors (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 APSU @ JAX 65 - 61
Jan 3, 2026 JAX @ APSU 68 - 71
Jan 4, 2025 APSU @ JAX 44 - 68
Jan 31, 2024 APSU @ JAX 43 - 63
Feb 16, 2023 JAX @ APSU 60 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +138.0% more
Austin Peay: 12.3 vs Jacksonville: 5.2
Assists (L5) +67.8% more
Austin Peay: 19.4 vs Jacksonville: 11.5
Blocks (L5) +29.2% more
Austin Peay: 3.9 vs Jacksonville: 3.0
Rebounding (L5) +24.8% more
Austin Peay: 40.7 vs Jacksonville: 32.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 58.0 68
APSU Score 87.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 30.6 30.0 / 43.0
Assists 19.4 / 11.5 10.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.0 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 42.7 40.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 70.9 77.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 40.7 / 32.6 31.0 / 40.0
Steals 12.3 / 5.2 12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 12.6 8.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
APSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.4
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
JAX
APSU
JAX
ML
53% 16-14
74% 23-8
59% 16-11
60% 18-12
ATS
57% 17-13
65% 20-11
59% 16-11
61% 19-12
TTL
57% 17-13
65% 20-11
100% 27-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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