TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
19-13 | Road
84
UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
4-28 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
55%
WARHAWKS
45%
BOBCATS
--
WARHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
194.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (UL Monroe)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ULM -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)
TXST By 1-7 points
0.0%
TXST By 8-14 points
0.0%
ULM By 1-7 points
0.4%
ULM By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas State
80
TEXAS STATE
UL Monroe
114
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
Texas State
TEXAS STATE
UL Monroe
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warhawks
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warhawks (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 194.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
ULM @ TXST
84 - 95
Jan 3, 2026
TXST @ ULM
84 - 79
Feb 19, 2025
ULM @ TXST
63 - 80
Feb 13, 2025
TXST @ ULM
72 - 60
Feb 27, 2024
ULM @ TXST
55 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+19.2% more
UL Monroe: 4.5
vs
Texas State: 3.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
UL Monroe: 35.8%
vs
Texas State: 34.1%
Steals (L5)
+19.2% more
Texas State: 8.6
vs
UL Monroe: 6.9
Rebounding (L5)
+14.3% more
Texas State: 34.4
vs
UL Monroe: 29.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TXST Score
80.0
84
ULM Score
114.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 34.1
50.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.6 / 14.4
14.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.5 / 3.8
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.7 / 44.3
50.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
70.5 / 75.5
69.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
29.5 / 34.4
25.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.9 / 8.6
8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 13.1
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
ULM
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
TXST
ULM
TXST
ML
50%
16-16
42%
13-18
70%
21-9
83%
25-5
ATS
78%
25-7
48%
15-16
70%
21-9
84%
26-5
TTL
59%
19-13
65%
20-11
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
