Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Bluejays BUT @ CREI

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

16-16  |  Road

85
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 4:12 PM ET
CHI Health Center Omaha
View Odds Details →

CREIGHTON

BLUEJAYSCREI

16-18  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
50%
📊
BLUEJAYS
50%
BULLDOGS --
BLUEJAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CREIGHTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Creighton)
BulldogsBUT (-3.5) 0 BluejaysCREI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

46.0%

Bluejays Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CREI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CREI)

BUT By 1-7 points

24.3%

BUT By 8-14 points

13.7%

CREI By 1-7 points

26.2%

CREI By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
88
BUTLER
89
CREIGHTON
Simulated Score
BUTLER
CREIGHTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bluejays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bluejays (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Win
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 CREI @ BUT 76 - 59
Dec 30, 2025 BUT @ CREI 85 - 89
Mar 8, 2025 BUT @ CREI 74 - 87
Jan 11, 2025 CREI @ BUT 80 - 76
Feb 17, 2024 CREI @ BUT 79 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +17.0% more
Creighton: 19.7 vs Butler: 16.8
Steals (L5) +13.7% more
Creighton: 8.0 vs Butler: 7.0
Turnovers (L5) +10.7% more
Creighton: 11.1 vs Butler: 10.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
Creighton: 38.7% vs Butler: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUT Score 88.0 85
CREI Score 89.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 31.7 41.0 / 31.0
Assists 19.7 / 16.8 19.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.9 / 4.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 45.9 49.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 72.4 93.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 41.0 35.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.0 / 7.0 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 10.0 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
CREI
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
CREI
11-22-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
CREI
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CREI
BUT
CREI
BUT
ML
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
70% 21-9
65% 20-11
ATS
58% 19-14
56% 18-14
70% 21-9
65% 20-11
TTL
52% 17-16
50% 16-16
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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