MIAMI
HEATMIA
1-0 | Road
116
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
0-0 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
15%
CELTICS
85%
HEAT
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
196.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.2%
BOS By 1-7 points
10.7%
BOS By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
103
MIAMI
Boston
93
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Miami
MIAMI
Boston
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
15% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 196.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ MIA
147 - 129
Feb 6, 2026
MIA @ BOS
96 - 98
Jan 15, 2026
BOS @ MIA
119 - 114
Dec 19, 2025
MIA @ BOS
116 - 129
Apr 2, 2025
MIA @ BOS
124 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+28.8% more
Miami: 6.8
vs
Boston: 4.9
Rebounding (L5)
+13.7% more
Miami: 45.7
vs
Boston: 39.4
Steals (L5)
+11.0% more
Miami: 8.9
vs
Boston: 7.9
Assists (L5)
+10.5% more
Miami: 23.6
vs
Boston: 21.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
103.0
116
BOS Score
93.0
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 30.9
49.0 / 39.0
Assists
21.1 / 23.6
25.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.9 / 6.8
8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 45.5
54.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
78.2 / 77.2
83.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
39.4 / 45.7
46.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.9 / 8.9
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 14.1
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIA
BOS
MIA
ML
57%
61-46
48%
46-50
53%
47-41
59%
48-34
ATS
59%
61-43-3
51%
49-47
53%
47-41
59%
48-34
TTL
56%
60-47
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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