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LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

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92
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 4:47 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

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121
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
15%
📊
THUNDER
85%
LAKERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

100.0%

Thunder Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

0.1%

LAL By 8-14 points

0.8%

OKC By 1-7 points

0.0%

OKC By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
124
LOS ANGELES
86
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
LOS ANGELES
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Loss
15% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-8) Loss
Proj Spread: -38.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u229.0 Win
Proj Total: 210.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 11, 2026 OKC @ LAL 115 - 110
May 9, 2026 OKC @ LAL 131 - 108
May 7, 2026 LAL @ OKC 107 - 125
May 5, 2026 LAL @ OKC 90 - 108
Apr 7, 2026 OKC @ LAL 123 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.5% more
Oklahoma City: 4.4 vs Los Angeles: 3.3
Rebounding (L5) +21.0% more
Oklahoma City: 42.6 vs Los Angeles: 35.2
Steals (L5) +8.8% more
Oklahoma City: 9.9 vs Los Angeles: 9.1
Free Throw % (L5) +5.9%
Oklahoma City: 79.5% vs Los Angeles: 73.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 124.0 92
OKC Score 86.0 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 35.2 31.0 / 31.0
Assists 24.0 / 22.5 28.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.4 / 3.3 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 49.8 50.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 73.6 91.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 42.6 / 35.2 42.0 / 42.0
Steals 9.9 / 9.1 14.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 13.1 11.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
LAL
OKC
LAL
ML
70% 80-34
61% 68-43
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
ATS
73% 83-30-1
61% 67-43-1
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
TTL
67% 76-38
61% 66-43-2
100% 95-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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