Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / LSU @ Houston LSU @ HOU

LSU

LSULSU

4-1  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 4:20 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

4-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Grant Chadwick
KEY GAME

Grant Chadwick

#90 | Punter
@
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
Player
Grant Chadwick None-None
Liam Dougherty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LSU
40%
📊
HOUSTON
60%
LSU --
HOUSTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Houston)
LSULSU (-3.5) 0 HoustonHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

LSU Cover

1.3%

Houston Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

LSU By 1-6 points

0.9%

LSU By 7-13 points

0.3%

HOU By 1-6 points

2.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
0
LSU
31
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
LSU
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Houston Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Houston (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 31.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 LSU @ HOU 35 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +89.4% more
Houston: 197.1 vs LSU: 104.1
First Downs (L5) +55.4% more
Houston: 24.1 vs LSU: 15.5
Turnovers (L5) +46.4% more
Houston: 1.6 vs LSU: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +41.9% more
Houston: 405.6 vs LSU: 285.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LSU Score 0.0 35
HOU Score 31.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.1 / 15.5 32.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 197.1 / 104.1 201.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 405.6 / 285.8 437.0 / 344.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.4 ATS +/-: +6.3
HOU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 28.4 ATS +/-: +6.3
HOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LSU
HOU
LSU
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Dylan Raiola Highlights UCLA's Autzen Stadium Experience as Key …
si 0 minutes ago
Texas Longhorns Lead College Football Viewership Through Week 5,…
si 5 hours, 46 minutes ago
Brent Venables Embraces Red River Rivalry Despite Struggles Agai…
si 1 day, 5 hours ago
Troy Aikman Stunned by Tyler Shough's Seven-Year College Journey…
themirror 2 days, 18 hours ago
AP Voters Split on Missouri-Florida After Tigers' Blowout Win
dailygazette 3 days, 12 hours ago