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MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

1-1-1  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Dec 11 • 7:30 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

2-2-0  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Jacob Fowler
GOALTENDER

Jacob Fowler

#32 | G
@
Kris Letang
GOALTENDER

Kris Letang

#58 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jacob Fowler None-None 2.01 0.947 --
Kris Letang None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.01 GAA --
0.947 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
45%
📊
PENGUINS
55%
CANADIENS --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
CanadiensMTL (-3.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canadiens Cover

30.9%

Penguins Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

MTL By 1 goal

12.1%

MTL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

PIT By 1 goal

19.7%

PIT By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MONTREAL
4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
MONTREAL
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penguins Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim
Proj Goals:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 MTL @ PIT 5 - 6
Dec 21, 2025 MTL @ PIT 3 - 4
Dec 20, 2025 PIT @ MTL 0 - 4
Dec 11, 2025 MTL @ PIT 4 - 2
Dec 12, 2024 PIT @ MTL 9 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +82.2% more
Pittsburgh: 6.1 vs Montreal: 3.4
Shots on Goal (L5) +27.5% more
Pittsburgh: 34.8 vs Montreal: 27.3
Hits (L5) +20.2% more
Montreal: 21.9 vs Pittsburgh: 17.5
Power Play % (L5) +5.6%
Montreal: 30.2% vs Pittsburgh: 24.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTL Score 3.0 4
PIT Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.5 / 15.0 19.0 / 24.0
Faceoff % 51.1 / 53.7 59.0 / 41.0
Hits 17.5 / 21.9 25.0 / 12.0
Power Play % 24.6 / 30.2 16.7 / 25.0
Shots on Goal 34.8 / 27.3 38.0 / 29.0
Takeaways 6.1 / 3.4 9.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
4%MONEY96%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MTL
PIT
MTL
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
ATS
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
TTL
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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