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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

2-1-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, Oct 28 • 8:50 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

1-2-0  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Logan Thompson None-None 1.03 0.947 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 0.00 1.000 1
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.03 GAA Ldr 0.00
0.947 Save % Ldr 1.000
-- SO Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
65%
📊
STARS
35%
CAPITALS --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

93.3%

Stars Cover

6.7%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1 goal

12.1%

WSH By 2-3 goals

37.2%

DAL By 1 goal

2.8%

DAL By 2-3 goals

1.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4
WASHINGTON
1
DALLAS
Simulated Score
WASHINGTON
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Capitals (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Sim
Proj Goals:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 7, 2026 DAL @ WSH 4 - 1
Oct 28, 2025 WSH @ DAL 0 - 1
Dec 16, 2024 WSH @ DAL 1 - 3
Oct 17, 2024 DAL @ WSH 2 - 3
Jan 27, 2024 WSH @ DAL 4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +11.2% more
Washington: 4.0 vs Dallas: 3.6
Blocked Shots (L5) +61.4% more
Dallas: 18.2 vs Washington: 11.3
Shots on Goal (L5) +12.1% more
Dallas: 28.9 vs Washington: 25.8
Power Play % (L5) +8.1%
Dallas: 29.7% vs Washington: 21.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.0 0
DAL Score 1.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 18.2 / 11.3 19.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 49.7 / 46.6 55.1 / 44.9
Hits 23.7 / 24.7 30.0 / 22.0
Power Play % 29.7 / 21.6 25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 28.9 / 25.8 19.0 / 24.0
Takeaways 3.6 / 4.0 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
53%MONEY47%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
WSH
DAL
WSH
ML
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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