Home / NHL Projections NHL / Sabres @ Stars BUF @ DAL

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

2-1-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Dec 31 • 8:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

1-2-0  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Casey DeSmith
GOALTENDER

Casey DeSmith

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 3.10 0.906 --
Casey DeSmith None-None 2.00 0.913 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.10 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.906 Save % Ldr 0.913
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
📊
STARS
0%
SABRES --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Dallas)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

36.5%

Stars Cover

63.5%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

BUF By 1 goal

13.9%

BUF By 2-3 goals

11.9%

DAL By 1 goal

19.5%

DAL By 2-3 goals

26.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.81
BUFFALO
3.5
DALLAS
Simulated Score
BUFFALO
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Stars (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Proj Goals:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 15, 2026 DAL @ BUF 4 - 3
Dec 31, 2025 BUF @ DAL 4 - 1
Dec 31, 2024 BUF @ DAL 2 - 4
Oct 22, 2024 DAL @ BUF 2 - 4
Apr 9, 2024 BUF @ DAL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +39.4% more
Dallas: 33.1 vs Buffalo: 23.8
Faceoff % (L5) +8.8%
Dallas: 53.0% vs Buffalo: 44.2%
Hits (L5) +38.7% more
Buffalo: 21.2 vs Dallas: 13.0
Blocked Shots (L5) +37.0% more
Buffalo: 19.1 vs Dallas: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 2.8 2
DAL Score 3.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.1 / 19.1 11.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 53.0 / 44.2 73.5 / 26.5
Hits 13.0 / 21.2 10.0 / 23.0
Power Play % 825.0 / 3207.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 33.1 / 23.8 33.0 / 23.0
Takeaways 3.7 / 3.8 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
79%MONEY21%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
BUF
DAL
BUF
ML
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
TTL
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Islanders Defy Doubters with Four Stars on ESPN Top 100 List
si 1 day, 12 hours ago
Sharks Stunned: Celebrini Sidelined by Lower-Body Injury Moments…
yahoo 2 days, 18 hours ago
Sharks' Celebrini Sidelined with Lower-Body Injury in Loss to St…
yahoo 2 days, 18 hours ago
Maple Leafs' Accountability Moment: Hiller Benches Nylander, Ech…
yardbarker 4 days ago
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…
theathleticuk 4 days, 12 hours ago