PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
2-2-0 | Road
2
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
1-2-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Erik Karlsson
#65 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Moritz Seider
#53 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Moritz Seider | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
RED WINGS
100%
PENGUINS
--
RED WINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1 goal
19.6%
PIT By 2-3 goals
27.0%
DET By 1 goal
13.5%
DET By 2-3 goals
11.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.71
PITTSBURGH
Detroit
2.95
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
PITTSBURGH
Detroit
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Proj Goals:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 5
Jan 3, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 1
Jan 1, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Sep 29, 2025
PIT @ DET
2 - 1
Sep 26, 2025
DET @ PIT
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+46.7% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Detroit: 2.5
Power Play % (L5)
+40.2%
Pittsburgh: 57.8%
vs
Detroit: 17.6%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+14.3% more
Pittsburgh: 28.8
vs
Detroit: 24.7
Blocked Shots (L5)
+10.1% more
Pittsburgh: 16.1
vs
Detroit: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.7
2
DET Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.5 / 16.1
18.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
52.0 / 50.3
56.3 / 43.8
Hits
18.2 / 17.6
18.0 / 9.0
Power Play %
17.6 / 57.8
66.7 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
24.7 / 28.8
25.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
2.5 / 4.7
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PIT
DET
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
0%
0-3
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
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