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DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

1-2-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 26 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

2-1-0  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Moritz Seider
GOALTENDER

Moritz Seider

#53 | Defense
@
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Moritz Seider None-None -- -- --
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 3.00 0.880 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 3.00
-- Save % 0.880
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
50%
📊
SABRES
50%
RED WINGS --
SABRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Detroit)
Red WingsDET (-3.5) 0 SabresBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wings Cover

55.8%

Sabres Cover

44.2%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DET -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1 goal

18.6%

DET By 2-3 goals

21.8%

BUF By 1 goal

16.1%

BUF By 2-3 goals

15.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.06
DETROIT
2.77
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
DETROIT
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Wings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Wings (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.3
D
Sim
Proj Goals:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 DET @ BUF 5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025 BUF @ DET 5 - 4
Oct 22, 2025 DET @ BUF 2 - 4
Sep 27, 2025 DET @ BUF 2 - 5
Sep 25, 2025 BUF @ DET 2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +24.3%
Detroit: 25.0% vs Buffalo: 0.7%
Faceoff % (L5) +4.4%
Detroit: 48.6% vs Buffalo: 44.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +17.0% more
Buffalo: 25.5 vs Detroit: 21.8
Blocked Shots (L5) +9.4% more
Buffalo: 17.9 vs Detroit: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 3.1 3
BUF Score 2.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.9 / 16.3 15.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 44.2 / 48.6 32.9 / 67.1
Hits 20.6 / 20.2 14.0 / 12.0
Power Play % 0.7 / 25.0 25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 25.5 / 21.8 39.0 / 25.0
Takeaways 7.0 / 6.9 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
95%MONEY5%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
DET
BUF
DET
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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