Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Mavericks SA @ DAL

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

62-20  |  Road

125
FINAL
Wed, Oct 22 • 9:47 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

0-0  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
55%
📊
MAVERICKS
45%
SPURS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

46.0%

Mavericks Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

SA By 1-7 points

26.2%

SA By 8-14 points

16.9%

DAL By 1-7 points

24.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
117
SAN ANTONIO
116
DALLAS
Simulated Score
SAN ANTONIO
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spurs Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+3) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o223.5 Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 DAL @ SA 120 - 139
Feb 7, 2026 DAL @ SA 125 - 138
Feb 5, 2026 SA @ DAL 135 - 123
Oct 22, 2025 SA @ DAL 125 - 92
Mar 12, 2025 DAL @ SA 116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.7% more
San Antonio: 16.4 vs Dallas: 14.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
San Antonio: 35.7% vs Dallas: 31.4%
Blocks (L5) +113.5% more
Dallas: 6.8 vs San Antonio: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 117.0 125
DAL Score 116.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 35.7 42.9 / 40.0
Assists 29.3 / 27.7 20.0 / 24.0
Blocks 6.8 / 3.2 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 47.6 37.3 / 57.5
Free Throw % 77.5 / 77.1 80.8 / 60.7
Rebounding 47.6 / 46.0 37.0 / 50.0
Steals 9.9 / 10.4 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 16.4 16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
SA
DAL
SA
ML
62% 63-39
60% 111-73
54% 44-37
58% 61-44
ATS
67% 68-34
58% 107-76-1
54% 44-37
58% 61-44
TTL
59% 60-41-1
74% 134-47-3
100% 81-0
100% 105-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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