Home / NBA Projections NBA / Suns @ Nuggets PHX @ DEN

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

0-2  |  Road

141
FINAL
Fri, Mar 7 • 10:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

1-1  |  Home

149
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
33%
📊
NUGGETS
67%
SUNS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.4
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.4 points (Denver)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

26.1%

Nuggets Cover

73.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -6.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

PHX By 1-7 points

16.3%

PHX By 8-14 points

6.4%

DEN By 1-7 points

26.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

24.7%

AI Model Projected Score
114.14
PHOENIX
120.55
DENVER
Simulated Score
PHOENIX
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 234.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 DEN @ PHX 125 - 123
Nov 29, 2025 DEN @ PHX 130 - 112
Oct 25, 2025 PHX @ DEN 111 - 133
Mar 7, 2025 PHX @ DEN 141 - 149
Feb 8, 2025 DEN @ PHX 122 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +47.4% more
Denver: 7.0 vs Phoenix: 4.8
Blocks (L5) +9.5% more
Denver: 5.2 vs Phoenix: 4.7
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
Phoenix: 81.2% vs Denver: 76.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Phoenix: 40.0% vs Denver: 37.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 114.1 141
DEN Score 120.6 149
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 40.0 52.5 / 42.1
Assists 28.8 / 29.7 45.0 / 36.0
Blocks 5.2 / 4.7 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 50.1 58.8 / 56.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 81.2 77.8 / 79.3
Rebounding 46.0 / 43.8 38.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.0 / 4.8 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 15.0 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
PHX
DEN
PHX
ML
54% 57-48
57% 60-45
55% 47-39
51% 45-43
ATS
63% 65-38-2
58% 59-43-3
55% 47-39
51% 45-43
TTL
54% 56-48-1
59% 61-42-2
100% 86-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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