PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
0-2 | Road
148
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
1-1 | Home
151
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
33%
GRIZZLIES
67%
SUNS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
27.3%
PHX By 8-14 points
21.1%
MEM By 1-7 points
20.7%
MEM By 8-14 points
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
117.29
PHOENIX
Memphis
113.67
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Phoenix
PHOENIX
Memphis
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Loss
33% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PHX @ MEM
131 - 105
Jan 7, 2026
PHX @ MEM
117 - 98
Oct 29, 2025
MEM @ PHX
114 - 113
Mar 10, 2025
PHX @ MEM
118 - 120
Feb 25, 2025
PHX @ MEM
148 - 151
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.3%
Phoenix: 81.2%
vs
Memphis: 75.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Phoenix: 48.4%
vs
Memphis: 44.6%
Turnovers (L5)
+12.9% more
Memphis: 14.9
vs
Phoenix: 13.2
Rebounding (L5)
+8.5% more
Memphis: 45.2
vs
Phoenix: 41.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
117.3
148
MEM Score
113.7
151
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 31.6
41.7 / 56.8
Assists
25.6 / 26.3
36.0 / 39.0
Blocks
5.7 / 5.6
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 48.4
52.5 / 53.5
Free Throw %
75.9 / 81.2
90.0 / 80.8
Rebounding
45.2 / 41.7
38.0 / 46.0
Steals
7.3 / 7.4
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 13.2
12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
PHX
MEM
PHX
ML
57%
59-44
57%
60-45
50%
41-41
51%
45-43
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
59-43-3
50%
41-41
51%
45-43
TTL
70%
71-31-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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