Home / NBA Projections NBA / Heat @ Raptors MIA @ TOR

MIAMI

HEATMIA

1-0  |  Road

120
FINAL
Fri, Feb 21 • 7:30 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

0-1  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
67%
📊
RAPTORS
33%
HEAT --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.7 points (Miami)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

74.7%

Raptors Cover

25.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -6.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-7 points

26.5%

MIA By 8-14 points

25.0%

TOR By 1-7 points

15.9%

TOR By 8-14 points

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
106.36
MIAMI
99.7
TORONTO
Simulated Score
MIAMI
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Heat Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Heat (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 206.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 MIA @ TOR 114 - 128
Apr 7, 2026 MIA @ TOR 95 - 121
Dec 23, 2025 TOR @ MIA 112 - 91
Dec 15, 2025 TOR @ MIA 106 - 96
Feb 21, 2025 MIA @ TOR 120 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.1% more
Toronto: 4.9 vs Miami: 4.0
Steals (L5) +11.5% more
Toronto: 7.4 vs Miami: 6.7
Turnovers (L5) +8.1% more
Toronto: 14.3 vs Miami: 13.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Toronto: 33.4% vs Miami: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 106.4 120
TOR Score 99.7 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 30.5 39.5 / 36.1
Assists 25.3 / 23.8 25.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.9 / 4.0 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 43.7 41.8 / 51.1
Free Throw % 75.0 / 75.1 78.3 / 83.3
Rebounding 42.7 / 44.9 46.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.4 / 6.7 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 13.2 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIA
TOR
MIA
ML
55% 57-47
48% 46-50
55% 48-39
59% 48-34
ATS
61% 62-40-2
51% 49-47
55% 48-39
59% 48-34
TTL
60% 62-42
59% 57-39
100% 87-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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