Home / NBA Projections NBA / Magic @ Heat ORL @ MIA

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

1-0  |  Road

119
FINAL
Mon, Jan 27 • 7:30 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

1-0  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
51%
📊
HEAT
49%
MAGIC --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
203.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Orlando)
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

55.4%

Heat Cover

44.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)

ORL By 1-7 points

26.5%

ORL By 8-14 points

17.5%

MIA By 1-7 points

23.8%

MIA By 8-14 points

13.1%

AI Model Projected Score
102.35
ORLANDO
100.98
MIAMI
Simulated Score
ORLANDO
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Magic Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Magic (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 203.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 ORL @ MIA 121 - 117
Jan 28, 2026 ORL @ MIA 133 - 124
Dec 9, 2025 MIA @ ORL 108 - 117
Dec 5, 2025 MIA @ ORL 105 - 106
Oct 22, 2025 MIA @ ORL 121 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.5% more
Orlando: 8.4 vs Miami: 5.8
Assists (L5) +26.2% more
Miami: 25.8 vs Orlando: 20.5
Free Throw % (L5) +19.9%
Miami: 89.8% vs Orlando: 69.9%
Rebounding (L5) +15.4% more
Miami: 48.0 vs Orlando: 41.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 102.4 119
MIA Score 101.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 32.4 36.6 / 35.9
Assists 25.8 / 20.5 34.0 / 32.0
Blocks 4.4 / 4.4 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 41.6 52.2 / 45.9
Free Throw % 89.8 / 69.9 66.7 / 60.0
Rebounding 48.0 / 41.6 43.0 / 47.0
Steals 5.8 / 8.4 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 15.3 18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ORL
MIA
ORL
ML
48% 46-50
61% 65-42
59% 48-34
56% 51-40
ATS
51% 49-47
64% 68-38-1
59% 48-34
56% 51-40
TTL
59% 57-39
57% 61-46
100% 82-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 3 hours, 12 minutes ago
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
actionnews5 1 day, 3 hours ago
Orlando Magic Preseason: Three Players with the Most to Gain Und…
si 1 day, 8 hours ago
Heat's Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Can Miami Make It …
yahoo 1 day, 15 hours ago
Thunder's Young Core Shines in Preseason Loss to Pelicans
yahoo 1 day, 21 hours ago