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ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

0-1  |  Road

119
FINAL
Sat, Jan 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

0-0  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
31%
📊
CELTICS
69%
HAWKS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Boston)
HawksATL (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

34.8%

Celtics Cover

65.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

ATL By 1-7 points

20.3%

ATL By 8-14 points

9.4%

BOS By 1-7 points

27.4%

BOS By 8-14 points

21.5%

AI Model Projected Score
114.08
ATLANTA
117.99
BOSTON
Simulated Score
ATLANTA
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 232.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 BOS @ ATL 102 - 112
Mar 27, 2026 ATL @ BOS 102 - 109
Jan 28, 2026 ATL @ BOS 117 - 106
Jan 17, 2026 BOS @ ATL 132 - 106
Jan 18, 2025 ATL @ BOS 119 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.1% more
Boston: 5.7 vs Atlanta: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Boston: 46.0% vs Atlanta: 44.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.6%
Boston: 77.4% vs Atlanta: 75.9%
Steals (L5) +39.4% more
Atlanta: 10.4 vs Boston: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 114.1 119
BOS Score 118.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 36.7 28.8 / 24.3
Assists 24.2 / 28.2 23.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.7 / 4.7 6.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 44.3 38.5 / 47.3
Free Throw % 77.4 / 75.9 87.0 / 78.6
Rebounding 44.5 / 46.5 53.0 / 55.0
Steals 6.3 / 10.4 13.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 12.6 14.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATL
BOS
ATL
ML
57% 61-46
50% 52-52
53% 47-41
55% 48-40
ATS
59% 61-43-3
53% 55-48-1
53% 47-41
55% 48-40
TTL
56% 60-47
53% 55-48-1
100% 88-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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