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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

1-0  |  Road

111
FINAL
Thu, Jan 9 • 7:30 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

0-0  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
30%
📊
MAVERICKS
70%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.6 points (Dallas)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

8.7%

Mavericks Cover

91.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -13.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

POR By 1-7 points

6.2%

POR By 8-14 points

1.5%

DAL By 1-7 points

17.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

26.5%

AI Model Projected Score
104.3
PORTLAND
117.87
DALLAS
Simulated Score
PORTLAND
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
70% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 DAL @ POR 100 - 93
Dec 29, 2025 DAL @ POR 122 - 125
Nov 16, 2025 POR @ DAL 133 - 138
Jan 9, 2025 POR @ DAL 111 - 117
Dec 28, 2024 DAL @ POR 122 - 126
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Dallas: 39.2% vs Portland: 37.2%
Steals (L5) +18.2% more
Portland: 8.2 vs Dallas: 6.7
Turnovers (L5) +12.9% more
Portland: 16.5 vs Dallas: 14.4
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Portland: 51.6% vs Dallas: 47.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 104.3 111
DAL Score 117.9 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 37.2 33.3 / 44.4
Assists 25.4 / 25.5 26.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.3 / 5.1 7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 51.6 45.5 / 41.9
Free Throw % 73.5 / 73.2 90.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 45.2 / 43.7 53.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.7 / 8.2 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 16.5 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
POR
DAL
POR
ML
62% 63-39
53% 56-49
54% 44-37
55% 49-40
ATS
67% 68-34
62% 65-39-1
54% 44-37
55% 49-40
TTL
59% 60-41-1
56% 58-46-1
100% 81-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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