MIAMI
HEATMIA
1-0 | Road
118
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
0-1 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
54%
KINGS
46%
HEAT
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
26.4%
MIA By 8-14 points
17.3%
SAC By 1-7 points
24.0%
SAC By 8-14 points
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
110.93
MIAMI
Sacramento
109.68
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Miami
MIAMI
Sacramento
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 20, 2026
MIA @ SAC
130 - 117
Dec 6, 2025
SAC @ MIA
127 - 111
Jan 6, 2025
MIA @ SAC
118 - 123
Nov 4, 2024
SAC @ MIA
111 - 110
Feb 26, 2024
MIA @ SAC
121 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+13.9% more
Miami: 4.9
vs
Sacramento: 4.2
Steals (L5)
+41.2% more
Sacramento: 10.9
vs
Miami: 7.7
Rebounding (L5)
+13.8% more
Sacramento: 43.4
vs
Miami: 38.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.3%
Sacramento: 85.8%
vs
Miami: 78.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
110.9
118
SAC Score
109.7
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 34.4
34.2 / 26.2
Assists
29.1 / 27.5
30.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.9
8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 48.4
41.7 / 42.2
Free Throw %
85.8 / 78.5
76.9 / 77.8
Rebounding
43.4 / 38.2
60.0 / 53.0
Steals
10.9 / 7.7
7.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 14.8
15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
MIA
SAC
MIA
ML
55%
55-45
48%
46-50
61%
50-32
59%
48-34
ATS
54%
52-45-3
51%
49-47
61%
50-32
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
57-42-1
59%
57-39
100%
82-0
100%
82-0
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