MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
1-1 | Road
117
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
0-2 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
68%
SUNS
32%
GRIZZLIES
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
MEM By 1-7 points
20.2%
MEM By 8-14 points
9.4%
PHX By 1-7 points
27.4%
PHX By 8-14 points
21.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
113.62
MEMPHIS
Phoenix
117.56
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Memphis
MEMPHIS
Phoenix
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Loss
32% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.9
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PHX @ MEM
131 - 105
Jan 7, 2026
PHX @ MEM
117 - 98
Oct 29, 2025
MEM @ PHX
114 - 113
Mar 10, 2025
PHX @ MEM
118 - 120
Feb 25, 2025
PHX @ MEM
148 - 151
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.0% more
Phoenix: 7.3
vs
Memphis: 5.5
Turnovers (L5)
+25.2% more
Memphis: 18.9
vs
Phoenix: 14.1
Assists (L5)
+20.8% more
Memphis: 31.1
vs
Phoenix: 24.6
Rebounding (L5)
+15.9% more
Memphis: 50.7
vs
Phoenix: 42.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
113.6
117
PHX Score
117.6
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 36.8
30.0 / 34.1
Assists
24.6 / 31.1
28.0 / 27.0
Blocks
7.3 / 5.5
10.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 44.8
45.7 / 42.6
Free Throw %
78.8 / 81.0
76.0 / 66.7
Rebounding
42.7 / 50.7
43.0 / 51.0
Steals
8.7 / 8.9
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 18.9
17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
MEM
PHX
MEM
ML
57%
60-45
57%
59-44
51%
45-43
50%
41-41
ATS
58%
59-43-3
63%
65-38
51%
45-43
50%
41-41
TTL
59%
61-42-2
70%
71-31-1
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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