Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Celtics TOR @ BOS

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

0-1  |  Road

71
FINAL
Tue, Dec 31 • 3:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

0-0  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
10%
📊
CELTICS
90%
RAPTORS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Boston)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

27.7%

Celtics Cover

72.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -5.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

TOR By 1-7 points

17.1%

TOR By 8-14 points

6.9%

BOS By 1-7 points

26.9%

BOS By 8-14 points

24.2%

AI Model Projected Score
113.22
TORONTO
119.14
BOSTON
Simulated Score
TORONTO
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
90% Win Prob
A
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.9
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 232.4
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 TOR @ BOS 101 - 115
Jan 9, 2026 TOR @ BOS 117 - 125
Dec 20, 2025 BOS @ TOR 112 - 96
Dec 7, 2025 BOS @ TOR 121 - 113
Oct 15, 2025 TOR @ BOS 108 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +50.8% more
Boston: 5.5 vs Toronto: 3.7
Rebounding (L5) +9.8% more
Boston: 47.2 vs Toronto: 43.0
Turnovers (L5) +47.5% more
Toronto: 20.8 vs Boston: 10.9
Assists (L5) +15.4% more
Toronto: 30.2 vs Boston: 25.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 113.2 71
BOS Score 119.1 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 33.6 51.2 / 25.0
Assists 25.5 / 30.2 29.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.5 / 3.7 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 46.3 54.0 / 31.4
Free Throw % 73.2 / 81.1 60.0 / 63.6
Rebounding 47.2 / 43.0 49.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.2 / 8.3 14.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 20.8 13.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
57% 61-46
55% 57-47
53% 47-41
55% 48-39
ATS
59% 61-43-3
61% 62-40-2
53% 47-41
55% 48-39
TTL
56% 60-47
60% 62-42
100% 88-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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