MIAMI
HEATMIA
1-0 | Road
124
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
1-0 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
68%
PISTONS
32%
HEAT
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.6 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
22.4%
DET By 1-7 points
19.2%
DET By 8-14 points
8.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
111.39
MIAMI
Detroit
106.82
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Miami
MIAMI
Detroit
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 218.2
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
DET @ MIA
110 - 121
Jan 1, 2026
MIA @ DET
118 - 112
Nov 29, 2025
DET @ MIA
138 - 135
Mar 19, 2025
DET @ MIA
116 - 113
Dec 16, 2024
MIA @ DET
124 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+12.6% more
Miami: 47.4
vs
Detroit: 41.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Miami: 40.6%
vs
Detroit: 35.3%
Steals (L5)
+29.8% more
Detroit: 8.1
vs
Miami: 6.2
Blocks (L5)
+10.2% more
Detroit: 3.8
vs
Miami: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
111.4
124
DET Score
106.8
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 40.6
50.0 / 27.9
Assists
26.5 / 26.6
32.0 / 30.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.4
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 48.4
48.9 / 45.5
Free Throw %
79.5 / 76.7
73.9 / 91.7
Rebounding
41.4 / 47.4
52.0 / 44.0
Steals
8.1 / 6.2
8.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 14.1
22.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIA
DET
MIA
ML
55%
64-53
48%
46-50
49%
47-49
59%
48-34
ATS
53%
60-54-3
51%
49-47
49%
47-49
59%
48-34
TTL
60%
70-46-1
59%
57-39
100%
96-0
100%
82-0
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