Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Heat DAL @ MIA

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

0-0  |  Road

118
FINAL
Sun, Nov 24 • 6:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

1-0  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
60%
📊
HEAT
40%
MAVERICKS --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

65.2%

Heat Cover

34.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

27.4%

DAL By 8-14 points

21.5%

MIA By 1-7 points

20.3%

MIA By 8-14 points

9.4%

AI Model Projected Score
116.6
DALLAS
112.68
MIAMI
Simulated Score
DALLAS
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 229.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 MIA @ DAL 108 - 118
Nov 24, 2025 DAL @ MIA 102 - 106
Feb 13, 2025 MIA @ DAL 113 - 118
Nov 24, 2024 DAL @ MIA 118 - 123
Apr 10, 2024 DAL @ MIA 111 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +59.3% more
Dallas: 5.7 vs Miami: 2.3
Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Dallas: 50.2% vs Miami: 43.8%
Steals (L5) +8.6% more
Miami: 10.2 vs Dallas: 9.4
Free Throw % (L5) +7.6%
Miami: 86.5% vs Dallas: 78.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 116.6 118
MIA Score 112.7 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 37.3 34.1 / 25.0
Assists 24.7 / 24.1 27.0 / 29.0
Blocks 2.3 / 5.7 6.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 50.2 43.0 / 41.9
Free Throw % 86.5 / 78.9 63.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 43.9 / 45.9 57.0 / 59.0
Steals 10.2 / 9.4 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 13.8 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DAL
MIA
DAL
ML
48% 46-50
62% 63-39
59% 48-34
54% 44-37
ATS
51% 49-47
67% 68-34
59% 48-34
54% 44-37
TTL
59% 57-39
59% 60-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Walt Frazier Dubs Anthony Davis 'Street Clothes' as Wizards Debu…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 3 hours, 44 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 9 hours, 36 minutes ago
Heat's Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Can Miami Make It …
yahoo 1 day, 16 hours ago
Miami Heat Attempt 40 3-Pointers in a Single Half During Intrasq…
yahoo 1 day, 21 hours ago