DETROIT
PISTONSDET
1-0 | Road
121
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
0-1 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
58%
HORNETS
42%
PISTONS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
27.1%
DET By 8-14 points
23.7%
CHA By 1-7 points
17.7%
CHA By 8-14 points
7.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
112.44
DETROIT
Charlotte
106.92
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Detroit
DETROIT
Charlotte
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pistons
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pistons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
DET @ CHA
118 - 100
Feb 9, 2026
DET @ CHA
110 - 104
Dec 20, 2025
CHA @ DET
86 - 112
Feb 9, 2025
CHA @ DET
102 - 112
Jan 3, 2025
CHA @ DET
94 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+8.5% more
Detroit: 49.9
vs
Charlotte: 45.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
Detroit: 44.7%
vs
Charlotte: 43.2%
Turnovers (L5)
+39.3% more
Charlotte: 16.8
vs
Detroit: 12.1
Steals (L5)
+27.2% more
Charlotte: 8.0
vs
Detroit: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
112.4
121
CHA Score
106.9
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.4 / 35.9
45.5 / 35.4
Assists
26.2 / 26.8
23.0 / 30.0
Blocks
5.8 / 4.8
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 44.7
47.3 / 42.4
Free Throw %
82.1 / 72.4
71.4 / 80.0
Rebounding
45.6 / 49.9
43.0 / 56.0
Steals
8.0 / 6.3
12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.8 / 12.1
16.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
DET
CHA
DET
ML
61%
60-39
55%
64-53
48%
40-44
49%
47-49
ATS
60%
59-40
53%
60-54-3
48%
40-44
49%
47-49
TTL
58%
57-42
60%
70-46-1
100%
84-0
100%
96-0
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