Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Celtics TOR @ BOS

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

0-1  |  Road

123
FINAL
Sat, Nov 16 • 8:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

0-0  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
50%
📊
CELTICS
50%
RAPTORS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Boston)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

35.9%

Celtics Cover

64.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

TOR By 1-7 points

20.7%

TOR By 8-14 points

9.8%

BOS By 1-7 points

27.3%

BOS By 8-14 points

21.1%

AI Model Projected Score
114.32
TORONTO
117.93
BOSTON
Simulated Score
TORONTO
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 232.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 TOR @ BOS 101 - 115
Jan 9, 2026 TOR @ BOS 117 - 125
Dec 20, 2025 BOS @ TOR 112 - 96
Dec 7, 2025 BOS @ TOR 121 - 113
Oct 15, 2025 TOR @ BOS 108 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +20.0% more
Boston: 28.8 vs Toronto: 24.0
Blocks (L5) +9.2% more
Boston: 5.2 vs Toronto: 4.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.6%
Boston: 39.8% vs Toronto: 31.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +8.2%
Boston: 48.4% vs Toronto: 40.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 114.3 123
BOS Score 117.9 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 31.2 34.4 / 39.1
Assists 28.8 / 24.0 30.0 / 35.0
Blocks 5.2 / 4.8 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 40.1 44.4 / 51.0
Free Throw % 79.0 / 76.4 89.5 / 66.7
Rebounding 41.7 / 48.0 42.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.6 2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 16.4 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
57% 61-46
55% 57-47
53% 47-41
55% 48-39
ATS
59% 61-43-3
61% 62-40-2
53% 47-41
55% 48-39
TTL
56% 60-47
60% 62-42
100% 88-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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