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MIAMI

HEATMIA

1-0  |  Road

121
FINAL
Tue, Nov 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

1-0  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
50%
📊
PISTONS
50%
HEAT --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.6 points (Miami)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

67.6%

Pistons Cover

32.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-7 points

27.3%

MIA By 8-14 points

22.4%

DET By 1-7 points

19.2%

DET By 8-14 points

8.5%

AI Model Projected Score
110.36
MIAMI
105.79
DETROIT
Simulated Score
MIAMI
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Heat Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Heat (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 216.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 DET @ MIA 110 - 121
Jan 1, 2026 MIA @ DET 118 - 112
Nov 29, 2025 DET @ MIA 138 - 135
Mar 19, 2025 DET @ MIA 116 - 113
Dec 16, 2024 MIA @ DET 124 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +48.5% more
Miami: 11.4 vs Detroit: 5.9
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Miami: 76.4% vs Detroit: 69.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Miami: 39.5% vs Detroit: 33.3%
Blocks (L5) +23.1% more
Detroit: 6.1 vs Miami: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 110.4 121
DET Score 105.8 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 39.5 36.1 / 37.8
Assists 24.9 / 24.6 32.0 / 25.0
Blocks 6.1 / 5.0 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 45.0 46.7 / 46.5
Free Throw % 69.6 / 76.4 85.7 / 76.9
Rebounding 46.5 / 41.3 56.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.9 / 11.4 4.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 15.9 19.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
DET
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIA
DET
MIA
ML
55% 64-53
48% 46-50
49% 47-49
59% 48-34
ATS
53% 60-54-3
51% 49-47
49% 47-49
59% 48-34
TTL
60% 70-46-1
59% 57-39
100% 96-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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