Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Trail Blazers MEM @ POR

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

1-1  |  Road

134
FINAL
Sun, Nov 10 • 9:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

1-0  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
50%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
50%
GRIZZLIES --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Portland)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

32.0%

Trail Blazers Cover

68.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

MEM By 1-7 points

19.1%

MEM By 8-14 points

8.4%

POR By 1-7 points

27.3%

POR By 8-14 points

22.6%

AI Model Projected Score
111.58
MEMPHIS
116.26
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
MEMPHIS
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 227.8
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 POR @ MEM 122 - 114
Feb 7, 2026 MEM @ POR 115 - 122
Feb 6, 2026 MEM @ POR 115 - 135
Dec 7, 2025 POR @ MEM 96 - 119
Mar 19, 2025 MEM @ POR 99 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +23.6% more
Portland: 9.3 vs Memphis: 7.5
Assists (L5) +36.8% more
Memphis: 29.7 vs Portland: 18.8
Blocks (L5) +27.2% more
Memphis: 7.4 vs Portland: 5.4
Turnovers (L5) +18.0% more
Memphis: 17.7 vs Portland: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 111.6 134
POR Score 116.3 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 36.6 9.5 / 37.2
Assists 18.8 / 29.7 18.0 / 32.0
Blocks 5.4 / 7.4 3.0 / 13.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 49.4 34.0 / 55.3
Free Throw % 72.2 / 80.8 81.0 / 85.7
Rebounding 41.2 / 49.1 43.0 / 51.0
Steals 9.3 / 7.5 9.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 17.7 24.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
MEM
POR
MEM
ML
53% 56-49
57% 59-44
55% 49-40
50% 41-41
ATS
62% 65-39-1
63% 65-38
55% 49-40
50% 41-41
TTL
56% 58-46-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 89-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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