DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
0-0 | Road
120
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
1-1 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
50%
NUGGETS
50%
MAVERICKS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DAL By 1-7 points
12.1%
DAL By 8-14 points
4.0%
DEN By 1-7 points
24.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
26.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
108.06
DALLAS
Denver
117.09
DENVER
Simulated Score
Dallas
DALLAS
Denver
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
DAL @ DEN
135 - 142
Jan 14, 2026
DEN @ DAL
118 - 109
Dec 23, 2025
DEN @ DAL
130 - 131
Dec 1, 2025
DAL @ DEN
131 - 121
Jan 14, 2025
DEN @ DAL
118 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.7% more
Denver: 5.4
vs
Dallas: 3.4
Turnovers (L5)
+35.0% more
Denver: 16.9
vs
Dallas: 12.5
Assists (L5)
+34.0% more
Denver: 33.1
vs
Dallas: 24.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.7%
Denver: 43.9%
vs
Dallas: 34.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
108.1
120
DEN Score
117.1
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.9 / 34.3
48.3 / 30.3
Assists
33.1 / 24.7
35.0 / 29.0
Blocks
5.4 / 3.4
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
52.3 / 49.4
50.6 / 53.3
Free Throw %
80.2 / 81.0
69.2 / 73.7
Rebounding
45.9 / 42.7
45.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.8 / 7.1
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.9 / 12.5
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
DAL
DEN
DAL
ML
54%
57-48
62%
63-39
55%
47-39
54%
44-37
ATS
63%
65-38-2
67%
68-34
55%
47-39
54%
44-37
TTL
54%
56-48-1
59%
60-41-1
100%
86-0
100%
81-0
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