Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Raptors SAC @ TOR

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

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128
FINAL
Sat, Nov 2 • 7:30 PM ET
Matchup Hub
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TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

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131
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
50%
📊
RAPTORS
50%
KINGS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.1
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.1 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

84.5%

Raptors Cover

15.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -10.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

22.8%

SAC By 8-14 points

27.3%

TOR By 1-7 points

10.5%

TOR By 8-14 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
111.91
SACRAMENTO
101.77
TORONTO
Simulated Score
SACRAMENTO
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 SAC @ TOR 123 - 115
Jan 21, 2026 TOR @ SAC 122 - 109
Oct 8, 2025 TOR @ SAC 130 - 122
Nov 6, 2024 TOR @ SAC 107 - 122
Nov 2, 2024 SAC @ TOR 128 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +25.5% more
Sacramento: 9.4 vs Toronto: 7.0
Free Throw % (L5) +3.3%
Sacramento: 80.8% vs Toronto: 77.4%
Assists (L5) +22.5% more
Toronto: 32.7 vs Sacramento: 26.7
Blocks (L5) +14.6% more
Toronto: 6.0 vs Sacramento: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 111.9 128
TOR Score 101.8 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 32.1 45.9 / 25.0
Assists 32.7 / 26.7 31.0 / 21.0
Blocks 6.0 / 5.2 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 47.9 48.4 / 46.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 80.8 71.0 / 81.3
Rebounding 45.7 / 45.4 46.0 / 49.0
Steals 7.0 / 9.4 13.0 / 16.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 14.0 19.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
SAC
TOR
SAC
ML
55% 57-47
55% 55-45
55% 48-39
61% 50-32
ATS
61% 62-40-2
54% 52-45-3
55% 48-39
61% 50-32
TTL
60% 62-42
58% 57-42-1
100% 87-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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