DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
1-1 | Road
127
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
0-1 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
50%
RAPTORS
50%
NUGGETS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
195.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
DEN By 1-7 points
23.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
12.4%
TOR By 1-7 points
26.7%
TOR By 8-14 points
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
96.59
DENVER
Toronto
98.41
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Denver
DENVER
Toronto
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Raptors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 195.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
TOR @ DEN
115 - 121
Dec 31, 2025
DEN @ TOR
106 - 103
Oct 6, 2025
DEN @ TOR
112 - 108
Nov 4, 2024
TOR @ DEN
119 - 121
Oct 28, 2024
DEN @ TOR
127 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+36.8% more
Toronto: 20.8
vs
Denver: 15.2
Blocks (L5)
+27.2% more
Toronto: 6.2
vs
Denver: 4.9
Assists (L5)
+10.0% more
Toronto: 28.1
vs
Denver: 25.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Toronto: 45.7%
vs
Denver: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
96.6
127
TOR Score
98.4
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 34.5
28.6 / 45.0
Assists
28.1 / 25.5
30.0 / 29.0
Blocks
6.2 / 4.9
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 42.3
45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 74.9
81.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
47.1 / 44.7
54.0 / 52.0
Steals
8.9 / 9.8
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
20.8 / 15.2
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DEN
TOR
DEN
ML
55%
57-47
54%
57-48
55%
48-39
55%
47-39
ATS
61%
62-40-2
63%
65-38-2
55%
48-39
55%
47-39
TTL
60%
62-42
54%
56-48-1
100%
87-0
100%
86-0
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