Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Lakers SAC @ LAL

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

0-1  |  Road

127
FINAL
Sat, Oct 26 • 10:30 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

1-1  |  Home

131
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
50%
📊
LAKERS
50%
KINGS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
197.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

66.5%

Lakers Cover

33.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

27.4%

SAC By 8-14 points

22.0%

LAL By 1-7 points

19.7%

LAL By 8-14 points

8.9%

AI Model Projected Score
100.68
SACRAMENTO
96.41
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
SACRAMENTO
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 197.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 SAC @ LAL 104 - 128
Jan 12, 2026 LAL @ SAC 112 - 124
Dec 28, 2025 SAC @ LAL 101 - 125
Oct 26, 2025 LAL @ SAC 127 - 120
Dec 28, 2024 SAC @ LAL 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +18.7% more
Sacramento: 10.3 vs Los Angeles: 8.4
Blocks (L5) +122.1% more
Los Angeles: 5.6 vs Sacramento: 2.5
Assists (L5) +8.1% more
Los Angeles: 25.6 vs Sacramento: 23.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Los Angeles: 33.8% vs Sacramento: 30.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 100.7 127
LAL Score 96.4 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 30.3 41.2 / 34.1
Assists 25.6 / 23.7 32.0 / 32.0
Blocks 5.6 / 2.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 42.3 52.2 / 51.1
Free Throw % 76.5 / 77.2 87.5 / 88.0
Rebounding 43.4 / 42.7 45.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.4 / 10.3 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 14.9 19.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
SAC
LAL
SAC
ML
61% 68-43
55% 55-45
54% 49-42
61% 50-32
ATS
61% 67-43-1
54% 52-45-3
54% 49-42
61% 50-32
TTL
61% 66-43-2
58% 57-42-1
100% 91-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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