Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Suns DAL @ PHX

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

0-0  |  Road

102
FINAL
Sat, Oct 26 • 10:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

0-2  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
50%
📊
SUNS
50%
MAVERICKS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
196.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Phoenix)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

30.7%

Suns Cover

69.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

DAL By 1-7 points

18.5%

DAL By 8-14 points

7.9%

PHX By 1-7 points

27.2%

PHX By 8-14 points

23.1%

AI Model Projected Score
95.66
DALLAS
100.71
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
DALLAS
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Suns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Suns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 196.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 DAL @ PHX 107 - 112
Feb 10, 2026 DAL @ PHX 111 - 120
Nov 12, 2025 PHX @ DAL 123 - 114
Mar 9, 2025 PHX @ DAL 125 - 116
Dec 27, 2024 DAL @ PHX 98 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +29.3% more
Phoenix: 30.3 vs Dallas: 23.4
Turnovers (L5) +12.2% more
Phoenix: 17.2 vs Dallas: 15.3
Free Throw % (L5) +6.5%
Phoenix: 80.7% vs Dallas: 74.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Phoenix: 40.8% vs Dallas: 36.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 95.7 102
PHX Score 100.7 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.8 / 36.4 35.9 / 31.7
Assists 30.3 / 23.4 26.0 / 22.0
Blocks 6.5 / 6.4 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 44.6 45.0 / 39.8
Free Throw % 80.7 / 74.2 75.7 / 83.3
Rebounding 40.7 / 46.4 47.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.0 / 8.4 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 17.2 / 15.3 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
DAL
PHX
DAL
ML
57% 60-45
62% 63-39
51% 45-43
54% 44-37
ATS
58% 59-43-3
67% 68-34
51% 45-43
54% 44-37
TTL
59% 61-42-2
59% 60-41-1
100% 88-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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