ORLANDO
MAGICORL
1-0 | Road
111
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
1-1 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
50%
GRIZZLIES
50%
MAGIC
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
ORL By 1-7 points
27.1%
ORL By 8-14 points
23.7%
MEM By 1-7 points
17.7%
MEM By 8-14 points
7.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
108.43
ORLANDO
Memphis
102.92
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Orlando
105
ORLANDO
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.5
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 211.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
ORL @ MEM
109 - 126
Jan 15, 2026
MEM @ ORL
111 - 118
Feb 21, 2025
MEM @ ORL
105 - 104
Oct 26, 2024
ORL @ MEM
111 - 124
Mar 30, 2024
MEM @ ORL
88 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+13.4% more
Orlando: 6.7
vs
Memphis: 5.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
Orlando: 74.1%
vs
Memphis: 70.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.2%
Orlando: 38.7%
vs
Memphis: 36.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Orlando: 46.4%
vs
Memphis: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
108.4
111
MEM Score
102.9
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 38.7
38.2 / 35.4
Assists
26.9 / 26.3
38.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.8 / 6.7
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 46.4
53.5 / 42.5
Free Throw %
70.3 / 74.1
79.2 / 71.4
Rebounding
44.7 / 46.0
42.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.6 / 9.3
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
18.1 / 15.4
18.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
Advantage
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
ORL
MEM
ORL
ML
57%
59-44
61%
65-42
50%
41-41
56%
51-40
ATS
63%
65-38
64%
68-38-1
50%
41-41
56%
51-40
TTL
70%
71-31-1
57%
61-46
100%
82-0
100%
91-0
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