BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
0-0 | Road
124
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
1-0 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
50%
PISTONS
50%
CELTICS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.2 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -10.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-7 points
22.8%
BOS By 8-14 points
27.3%
DET By 1-7 points
10.4%
DET By 8-14 points
3.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
113.77
BOSTON
Detroit
103.58
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Boston
98
BOSTON
Detroit
121
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Celtics (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.2
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 217.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 19, 2026
BOS @ DET
103 - 104
Dec 15, 2025
DET @ BOS
112 - 105
Nov 26, 2025
DET @ BOS
114 - 117
Oct 26, 2025
BOS @ DET
113 - 119
Feb 26, 2025
BOS @ DET
97 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+10.0% more
Boston: 44.9
vs
Detroit: 40.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.4%
Boston: 81.9%
vs
Detroit: 74.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Boston: 39.2%
vs
Detroit: 34.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+75.4% more
Detroit: 18.2
vs
Boston: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
113.8
124
DET Score
103.6
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 39.2
35.9 / 45.8
Assists
26.4 / 26.2
27.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.6 / 4.0
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 46.4
48.9 / 42.2
Free Throw %
74.4 / 81.9
81.8 / 86.7
Rebounding
40.4 / 44.9
44.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.2 / 7.6
4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
18.2 / 10.4
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BOS
DET
BOS
ML
55%
64-53
57%
61-46
49%
47-49
53%
47-41
ATS
53%
60-54-3
59%
61-43-3
49%
47-49
53%
47-41
TTL
60%
70-46-1
56%
60-47
100%
96-0
100%
88-0
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