MIAMI
HEATMIA
1-0 | Road
114
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
0-1 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
50%
HORNETS
50%
HEAT
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
26.4%
MIA By 8-14 points
17.3%
CHA By 1-7 points
24.0%
CHA By 8-14 points
13.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
105.3
MIAMI
Charlotte
104.08
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Miami
102
MIAMI
Charlotte
115
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 209.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
MIA @ CHA
126 - 127
Mar 17, 2026
MIA @ CHA
106 - 136
Mar 6, 2026
MIA @ CHA
128 - 120
Nov 7, 2025
CHA @ MIA
108 - 126
Oct 28, 2025
CHA @ MIA
117 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+31.4% more
Miami: 11.0
vs
Charlotte: 7.5
Assists (L5)
+16.7% more
Miami: 27.4
vs
Charlotte: 22.8
Blocks (L5)
+37.9% more
Charlotte: 6.5
vs
Miami: 4.7
Turnovers (L5)
+37.2% more
Charlotte: 19.9
vs
Miami: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
105.3
114
CHA Score
104.1
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 33.7
31.7 / 41.2
Assists
22.8 / 27.4
20.0 / 33.0
Blocks
6.5 / 4.7
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
42.7 / 43.8
43.8 / 46.5
Free Throw %
78.0 / 75.3
71.4 / 71.4
Rebounding
51.5 / 41.5
46.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.5 / 11.0
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
19.9 / 14.5
20.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
MIA
CHA
MIA
ML
61%
60-39
48%
46-50
48%
40-44
59%
48-34
ATS
60%
59-40
51%
49-47
48%
40-44
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
57-42
59%
57-39
100%
84-0
100%
82-0
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