PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
0-2 | Road
116
LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
1-1 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
50%
LAKERS
50%
SUNS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
202.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)
PHX By 1-7 points
25.2%
PHX By 8-14 points
15.0%
LAL By 1-7 points
25.5%
LAL By 8-14 points
15.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
101.21
PHOENIX
Los Angeles
101.4
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Phoenix
PHOENIX
Los Angeles
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 202.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
PHX @ LAL
73 - 101
Feb 26, 2026
LAL @ PHX
110 - 113
Dec 23, 2025
LAL @ PHX
108 - 132
Dec 14, 2025
LAL @ PHX
116 - 114
Dec 1, 2025
PHX @ LAL
125 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+23.3% more
Phoenix: 7.7
vs
Los Angeles: 5.9
Assists (L5)
+21.7% more
Phoenix: 28.0
vs
Los Angeles: 21.9
Steals (L5)
+20.2% more
Phoenix: 9.5
vs
Los Angeles: 7.6
Turnovers (L5)
+18.0% more
Phoenix: 17.3
vs
Los Angeles: 14.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
101.2
116
LAL Score
101.4
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
24.8 / 38.3
51.9 / 45.9
Assists
21.9 / 28.0
33.0 / 35.0
Blocks
5.9 / 7.7
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.4 / 47.2
53.3 / 51.2
Free Throw %
77.5 / 77.0
74.4 / 88.2
Rebounding
46.5 / 44.0
37.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.6 / 9.5
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 17.3
13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
LAL
Advantage
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
LAL
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
PHX
LAL
PHX
ML
61%
68-43
57%
60-45
54%
49-42
51%
45-43
ATS
61%
67-43-1
58%
59-43-3
54%
49-42
51%
45-43
TTL
61%
66-43-2
59%
61-42-2
100%
91-0
100%
88-0
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